The USDA’s Cattle on Feed report is released monthly and normally contains inventory data as of the first of the month. To access the latest numbers, you can visit the USDA’s website or use the NASS Quick Stats database. You can download the full database or subscribe to the latest version of the report through automatic subscription. For more detailed information, you can check out the NASS Quick Stats 2.0 database.
Texas leads the country with 2.9 million cattle on feed
The number of fed cattle placed in feedlots is a key indicator of the state of the industry. Texas led the country in May with 2.9 million head, followed by Kansas and Nebraska. While the growth rate in Texas was higher than in Kansas and Nebraska, placements fell in both states. That could be indicative of the future of the cattie market. Nonetheless, there are a few caveats to bear in mind.
Iowa feedlots are the main contributor to larger year-over-year inventories of market ready cattle
The larger-than-average year-over-year inventory of market ready cattle is primarily attributed to placements in feedlots in Iowa. Feedlot placements are measured as a percentage of January 1 feeder cattle supply, and as of April, 30 percent of that supply had been placed on feed. In other words, even with the recent drought in the southern Plains, feedlot placements are similar to the January 1 inventory numbers.
Although the total inventory of market-ready cattle has increased over the last several years, it is still far lower than the levels recorded during the last few years. The calf crop in 2021 is expected to reach 35.1 million head, down 1.2% from last year. The total number of heifers and cows in feedlots is expected to reach 19.8 million head by May 1, 2022.
The beef cattle industry is entering the contraction phase. The breeding herd provides calves to the cattle inventory. Because of increased cow and heifer slaughter, the calf crop will be smaller. This in turn will lead to lower inventories of market ready cattle in January. Moreover, extreme drought in the southern Plains has led to the removal of cattle, which is one of the main causes of large inventories.
Beef replacement heifers are unchanged from last year
While the number of beef replacement heifers is down 3% from last July, the number of milk and other heifers is unchanged. The number of steers and bulls and calves under 500 pounds is virtually unchanged. Cattle and heifers on feed for slaughter at feedlots are up 1% from a year earlier. The number of calves under 500 pounds, however, decreased.
While beef replacement heifers are unchanged from a year ago, there are some signs of an approaching herd liquidation. Currently, only 18.4% of beef cows are being sold for slaughter. That number is expected to decline as the cows are culled. It will be interesting to see how these figures change over the course of the year as producer plans can change. The USDA beef replacement heifer inventory was 18.4% on Jan. 1 of this year, down from a record high of 21.
According to the USDA July Cattle Report, the number of cattle on U.S. farms was 101 million head. Of this number, 31.4 million were beef cows, 9.50 million were milk cows. The remaining 20.6 million were milk and replacement heifers. That’s a decrease of 1.3 percent over last year. That leaves a deficit of about 2.4 million head of cattle that could be sold for slaughter in the next year.
